Some days are like that

Bridge, they say, is a game of percentages, so even at duplicate there is luck involved.  There are many situations where you need to make a decision that a lot of the time will turn out to be right, but this time it turns out to be wrong.  String two or three of those together, and a lot of IMPs can disappear in a hurry.

In our first match yesterday, against Australia, one high-level bidding decision and one difficult play problem unsolved (see below) turned a big win into a tie.  The second match, against Indonesia, we expected to win comfortably, and would have done so but for two deals, which bore an eerie resemblance one to the other.  In both, the opponents failed to unearth a 6-2 heart fit and settled in 3NT.  On the first deal, the contract was cold because diamonds turned out to be 7-2.  On the second, the opening leader had to decide between ♦ K10xx of diamonds and ♣ K9xx.  She chose diamonds, the suit with the better spots, and a club would have beaten the hand.  Meanwhile, partners were in a normal 4♥ down one in each case.  So that was 24 IMPs out of the window and a disappointing loss to a weak team.

 

In our third match we were again unlucky, but this time in the sense the late great Edgar Kaplan meant it in one of my favourite bridge stories.  Edgar had just lost an important match, and someone asked him what had happened.  ‘We were very unlucky,’ he replied. ‘They played better than we did.’  That was our fate against USA1, who are now leading the field (actually, the USA 1 teams lead all 3 events at present!).  There were some tough bidding decisions, and most of them found us zigging when they were zagging — zagging being the winning action.  Losing a blitz was a disappointing end to the day, bridgewise.  Tomorrow is another day,however (or today, since R7 has just begun as I write this).  We are playing the 3 lowest ranked teams in the field, and need to pile up a big VP total against them.  If we can do that we can pull right back into  the fight for the playoffs again — not to mention gaining some much-needed confidence.

Dinner after the game was at a nearby Chinese restaurant (What else? you might ask. Actually, the food selection here is very wide.)   Michael Yuen, a Canadian from BC who captains the German Venice Cup team, had recommended it to us, and it turned out to be an excellent choice.  We were served elegantly, and a multi-course repast with drinks, tax and tip cost us a grand total of $13 apiece.  Outside the hotels, which are outrageous, consumer goods and food are very cheap.  I am planning to go shopping for DVD’s later in the day, and have my eye on the Complete Jeremy Brett Sherlock Holmes collection — about $150 at home, and maybe $30 here (the real thing, not a knockoff).

OK, now the declarer play problem.

                                                

	♠ K 4 3
	♥ K J 9 8 3
	♦ 7 4 3
	♣ A 4
	♠ Q J 10 8 7 6 5
	♥ A 7 5
	♦ A 2
	♣ 10

The auction, with Both Vul.:

                           West             North                East                 South

                                                                                                1♠

                           2NT*             3♦**                 5♣                    5♠

                           all pass

                           * Unusual, for minors

                           ** Limit raise or better in spades

They lead the ♣K — how do you play?

Without sufficient entries for an elimination, it’s important to draw some inferences about the distribution.  Clubs are likely to be 5-5, while West is likely to have either 5 or 6 diamonds.  He should surely have the ♠A.  East, for the jump to 5♣ vulnerable, seems likely to have a diamond honour, and probably the ♥Q.  So assuming the defense shifts to a diamond at their first opportunity, what kind of major-suit layout will allow declarer to make it?

There seems to be no sensible lie of the cards where declarer can succeed by playing on hearts first — there is no re-entry to dummy after the hearts are established without letting the defenders in with a trump trick or a ruff to cash a diamond.  There’s no sure tricks line, but the percentage play seems to be to play West for a singeleton heart honour, or the doubleton ten — so lead a heart to the king and run the jack.  But perhaps that’s easy to say when you’re looking at all four hands, which are as follows:

                                       

	♠ K 4 3
	♥ K J 9 8 3
	♦ 7 4 3
	♣ A 4
♠ A		♠ 9 2
♥ 10 2		♥ Q 6 4
♦ K J 10 6 5		♦ Q 9 8
♣ K Q 9 8 2		♣ J 7 6 5 3
	♠ Q J 10 8 7 6 5
	♥ A 7 5
	♦ A 2
	♣ 10

Only about two-thirds of the declarers in the three events here got it right, so if you did, take a bow.