Another day, another grand

♦

Of the 48 boards I watched today, undoubtedly this was the most interesting.  I’ll give it first as a single dummy problem, because that’s the way it shows in its best light (hands rotated for convenience).  It’s also the way we tried to analyze it, as responsible commentators, pretending we couldn’t see all four hands and trying to put ourselves in declarer’s shoes.

North
♠	4
♥	AQ105
♦	AKJ53
♣	J87
South
♠	AQ2
♥	94
♦	109
♣	AKQ1043

There’s no opposition bidding, and after partner opened 1♦ you end up in 7♣ (we won’t discuss whether that’s a good thing or not — you’re there, so live with it) .  LHO tracks the ♥3.  So how do you play the hand?

Basically, you need a parking place for a heart loser, which can only be a diamond.  But how do you set up diamonds now?  The real problem with the heart lead is that it’s taken out the dummy entry.  Yes, you can set up diamonds, assuming they’re no worse than 4-2, but you can’t then draw trumps and get back to enjoy your diamond winner(s).  You can always finesse in diamonds, which is the same 50-50 or so that the heart finesse gives you.  You can, of course, cash the ♦A first, just in case the ♦Q is stiff offside.  Let’s follow that line through .  ♦A, ♠A, ♠ ruff, ♦A, and the queen drops.  That’s not actually good news.  Now with diamonds blocked, you still only have three diamond tricks, and if you cross back to the ♣A and ruff the last spade, you’re stuck in dummy with no way off, unless East obligingly had only one club too.  Hmm.  Of course, in that case, if West has the ♠K, youcan change tack after the ♦Q drops — run all the trumps, and catch West in a pointed suit squeeze.

So you seem to have 3 options:  heart finesse (50%), diamond finesse (50%), or ♦A dropping the stiff ♦Q offside, in which case we have a 50% chance West has the ♠K and you can squeeze him.  This 50% number is getting awfully repetitive.  Can you take any inference from the lead?

It wasn’t the auto trump lead, and on the auction you were known to have at least a 9-card club fit and to have all the top honours.  So probably even a stiff club wouldn’t deter West from leading one.  Dummy bid red suits, declarer bid clubs and cuebid spades.  And West led a heart quite quickly.  Perhaps he knows the ♥K is onside, and is trying to make you guess whether or not to finesse for it at Trick1, rather than fall back on that play when all else fails.  On that basis, the ♥K may well be onside.

Final piece of information:  LHO is Zia.

Okay, you’ve had time to think: what do you do?

Here’s the full deal:

Dealer: Vul:		North
		♠	4
		♥	AQ105
		♦	AKJ53
		♣	J87
West				East
♠	K1097			♠	J8653
♥	763			♥	KJ82
♦	87642			♦	Q
♣	2			♣	965
		South
		♠	AQ2
		♥	94
		♦	109
		♣	AKQ1043

Eric Saelinsminde, of Norway, after close to 10 minutes thought, put in the ♥Q, and went down at Trick 1.  At the other table, Jeff Meckstroth, arguably the world’s best declarer, rose with the ♥A, crossed on a trump, and took a losing diamond finesse.  In the Italy-China match, Alfredo Versace took the same line as Meckstroth, while Jack Zhao for China tried the heart finesse at Trick 1.  The winning line, as you can see, is that obscure cash of the ♦A followed by the squeeze.  Is it the right line? Maybe, by fraction of a percent.  Is it worth spending the mental energy to figure that out at the table?  Who knows.

Across the entire field in 3 events,  13 declarers faced a heart lead, and every one of them went down.  Meanwhile 12 declarers got either a trump (4) or a diamond (8) lead, and made the hand — with the ♥A still in dummy, cashing the ♦A brings the suit home for 5 tricks.  Next time someone tells you always to lead a trump against a grand, remember this deal.