Reading the cards

Deal 14 of the first session of the quarterfinals in Sao Paulo today was a real challenge.  It was a great example of how defensive bidding and carding can give you an almost exact read on the lie of the cards — but that even then, it may not be that easy for declarer to get home.  I’ll present it first single dummy, as one German declarer saw it in the Bermuda Bowl, (rotated for convenience):

North
♠	KJ43
♥	AK
♦	106
♣	K10754
South
♠	Q9
♥	873
♦	K75
♣	AQ832

You open 1NT (11-13) and LHO doubles for penalties.  Partner redoubles, saying ‘we got them’, a treatment I personally like as lot.  RHO bids 2H, which you double.  Partner removes this to 3H, and for lack of an alternative you trot out your club suit.  Partner raises you to game, and LHO expresses doubt.  He leads the H2, and when you see dummy, you have little doubt he has both missing aces.  You decide to play a round of clubs, leading the C4 to the CA, and RHO pitches the S8 on this.  What are you going to do now?

What the declarer I watched did was cross to the HK, draw the rest of the trumps, ruff a heart in dummy, and play a spade up to hand, inserting the 9.  We’ll return to the outcome shortly. Let’s go back to Trick 3.  What do we know?

1) LHO has most of the missing high cards, certainly the two aces.

2) RHO has heart length — on the lead, hearts seem to be 3-5.

3) Clubs are 3-0.

4) RHO’s first discard was the S8 — surely indicative of length.  Looking at that dummy, you also have to think about what his holding might be to make a spade discard look safe — certainly not 10xxx.

So isn’t it possible, even likely, that South has a doubleton SA?  In that case, there’s a very pretty possibility, which is that we can catch him in a Morton’s Fork, followed by endplaying him.  But the timing has to be exact: we have to draw trumps, eliminate hearts, and play a spade towards dummy at the right time.  If he goes up ace, we have three spade winners; if he ducks it, we shall eventually play a second spade, endplaying him to give us a ruff sluff or lead a diamond away from the ace.

That’s the theory, but the timing has to be perfect, and if you work it through, it turns out that the spade play has to happen at Trick 3.  The declarer I watched didn’t do that.  Instead, as I said, he cashed the HK, drew trumps and then ruffed a heart.  Now there was little alternative but to try the spade finesse, which was odds on.  However, odds on isn’t certainty, since the whole deal was:

Dealer: Vul:		North
		♠	KJ43
		♥	AK
		♦	106
		♣	K10754
West				East
♠	A10			♠	87632
♥	Q62			♥	J10954
♦	AQ982			♦	J43
♣	J96			♣	—
		South
		♠	Q9
		♥	873
		♦	K75
		♣	AQ832

Khiuppenen of Russia demonstrated how it should be done.  He opened 1C, and LHO overcalled 1D.  Partner bid 1H, and RHO raised to 2D.  Thereafter the Russians bid unnoposed to 5C.  Again the lead was a low heart, won in dummy.  Declarer cashed the second high heart, and crossed to hand with the CA.  He ruffed his last heart, and finished drawing trumps, ending in hand.  Noting RHO’s discards, he correctly read the position and played the S9 from his hand.  West was helpless — take the ace now and concede three spade tricks, or duck it, and be endplayed on the next trick.  Neatly done.

One other declarer made this contract, in the Venice Cup, but unfortunately there is no record of the play.  Several were unsuccessful — usually there was bidding to provide a clue, but to a man they all eventually took that spade finesse.  Just goes to show that even in world competition, a tough hand is a tough hand.